The recent report by US News that Morocco is the leading African country in the quality of life index for 2023 is testament to decades of steady human development progress in the country.1 And indeed, new research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) confirms this, although it shows there is substantial variation within the country.
The MGI research—which takes an unprecedented “high-res” view of human development across the world by zooming into the details on a scale 230 times more granular than conventional country-level studies and rankings allow—shows how Morocco progressed between 2000 and 2019.2 Two key metrics of development were considered: life expectancy and economic activity (measured as GDP per capita) and researchers combined official data with new research techniques, such as satellite-enabled luminosity studies that measure activity based on the amount of artificial light emitted, to build a nuanced picture of development across the country. Some unexpected insights emerged.
A journey toward prosperity
In 2000, Morocco only had a small percentage of its microregions classified as “orange zones”—meaning areas where GDP per capita and life expectancy were among the bottom 30 percent globally. Practically, this meant income per person below $2,400 and a life expectancy of fewer than 65.6 years. Just less than one million people in Morocco lived in orange zones. The remaining population lived in “grey zones”—where GDP per capita and life expectancy exceeded the bottom 30 percent globally but had not yet achieved “blue zone” status—marking the top 30 percent globally who enjoyed more than $8,300 of income and life expectancy of longer than 72.5 years.
Fast forward nearly 20 years, and the picture looked completely different. By 2019, Morocco had no orange zones and around 40 percent of the population was living in blue zones, meaning nearly half the population had crossed the $8,300 and 72.5 years thresholds (Exhibit). This is an interesting lens for a country that ranked 132 out of 193 countries for GDP per capita in 2019 and 107 out of 169 countries in the 2021 World Bank Human Capital Index.3
Our world is big and complex and, to understand it more easily, we have tended to revert to country and regional averages that compress human progress into a single number that can be neatly assembled into global rankings. But, while this plays a vital role in organizing information so that it is memorable and actionable, such a high-level view runs the risk of blurring reality by leaving out crucial details of what’s actually happening on the ground.
Pixels of Progress: An African Perspective
Making sure we tell the full story
By telling only part of the story, we risk obscuring potentially important information that distinguishes what is shaping things for better or worse. The MGI research found that a country’s GDP per capita growth rate only explains about 20 percent of the variation in growth rates among its microregions, illustrating the need to evaluate economic progress and health at a more granular level.
For example, in Morocco, the national average for GDP per capita growth between 2000 and 2019 was around 3 percent, but this ranged across microregions from 0 to 5 percent. Places in the north, such like Fès, Taounate, and Al Hoceïma, had annual growth rates of 4 to 5 percent, while Casablanca—starting from a higher GDP per capita base—had lower GDP per capita growth, along with other central parts of the country.
While no microregions in Morocco declined in life expectancy over this time—with an average increase of eight additional years at the national level—the biggest shift in lifespans appeared to be highest in regions in the center and the east, at more than ten years, and lowest along the Atlantic coastline, at around six years in some places. Coastal areas had higher life expectancy in 2000; since then, the interior has narrowed the gap.
A sharper focus for sharper solutions
There are at least two implications emerging from this kind of more focused analysis. First, overly optimistic or critical news is not always helpful. Moments of reflection could better serve to point out the good as well as the bad to inform a more realistic pathway forward.
Second, to continue driving positive development, a more focused perspective on what works and what does not could better inform policy and investment decisions at this critical juncture.
While economists agree that Morocco’s economy is making a solid recovery post the COVID-19 pandemic, with most of the output and job losses restored, the country—as with the rest of the world at this time—is still subject to downside risks in a world characterized by “polycrisis”, from the war in Ukraine to escalating drought.4 Understanding how development unfolded on the ground over the past 20 years can help us learn from those places that were successful and avoid the mistakes of places that were not, while also ensuring finite resources are deployed where they’re needed most.
The MGI research suggests that in our current reality, a one-size-fits-all approach is no longer fit for purpose, where a nuanced understanding of differences across microregions could help create more appropriate, impactful interventions. It is important—both for the country and its citizens, as well as for the African continent as a whole—that Morocco keeps up the momentum it has gathered since 2000 and stays on the path to become an upper-middle-income country. Given what’s at stake, we can’t afford not to look more closely.
