American economic opportunity in 2022

(11 pages)

COVID-19. The vaccine. The Delta variant. And now the Omicron variant. The return from remote work (or not). The return from remote schooling (or not). The Great Resignation. The year 2021 has been unlike any other, challenging the resilience of American workers and their families in extraordinary ways.

What might 2022 bring?

McKinsey Economic Opportunity Index

Our survey questions on access to economic opportunity were inspired by the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. For each respondent, we calculated a score from 0 to 200—from a low perception (a pessimistic view of economic opportunity) to a high perception (an optimistic view). Scores were based on the respondents’ answers to five questions:

We are interested in how much economic opportunity people have these days. Would you say that you and your family have more or fewer economic opportunities compared with 12 months ago?
Looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now you and your family will have more or fewer economic opportunities?
Turning to economic opportunity in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next 12 months people in this country will have more or fewer economic opportunities?
Looking ahead over the next five years, which would you say is more likely— that in the country as a whole there will be continuous growth in economic opportunity, or that economic opportunities will decline?
Thinking again about the country as a whole, do you believe that our economy does a good or bad job of providing economic opportunities for all people?

A respondent who gave low-perception responses to all five questions would score 0; five neutral-perception responses would score 100; and five high-perception responses would score 200.

To find out, we surveyed a cross section of 5,000 Americans in the fall of 2021. Our goal: to take a pulse check on the current and future state of economic opportunity in the United States and to learn more about the challenges its workers face.

Below we highlight five key insights from the survey. We hope they help spur meaningful reflection and conversation among public-, private-, and social-sector leaders about the state of sustainable, inclusive growth in America—and the path ahead for making that growth a reality for everyone.

Americans are marginally more optimistic about their access to economic opportunity than they were in March. But the slight uptick masks a broader ambivalence.

Americans are marginally more optimistic about their access to economic opportunity than they were in March, when we conducted our first survey. But the slight uptick in the McKinsey Economic Opportunity Index indicated in the exhibit masks a broader ambivalence: while respondents are more optimistic than they were in March about their current opportunities, they are less optimistic about future growth. For example, 17 percent of the respondents (up from 10 percent in March) reported that they and their families have more economic opportunities than they did 12 months ago. Yet only 35 percent of the respondents, down from 41 percent in March, said that it’s likely the country as a whole will enjoy continuous growth in economic opportunity over the next five years. Notably, respondents of color appear less optimistic today than they did in March.

Many Americans remain in a state of economic precarity. Only 48 percent of the respondents (down from 50 percent in March) said that they could cover more than two months of expenses if they lost their jobs. The challenge increases as the level of education falls: only 38 percent of respondents without college degrees report that they could cover more than two months of expenses if they lost their jobs.

Groups reporting that their position has worsened since our March survey include women, people living in rural areas, and caregivers with a child or children at home.

Almost half of Americans report being on the financial brink.

Although respondents reported many barriers to their economic well-being, access to healthcare and/or health insurance were far and away the most pressing. Moreover, healthcare-related barriers were slightly more likely to be included among respondents’ top three in this survey than they were in March.

Americans with children at home experience these barriers most acutely. Such respondents were more likely than average to say that each barrier in the chart was a top three barrier to their well-being.

Americans report access to affordable healthcare as the greatest barrier to well-being.

Forty-nine percent of the respondents said that most Americans have opportunities to find good jobs, up seven percentage points from March. This rise in optimism could stem from the ongoing economic recovery and from the so-called Great Attrition, which has increased the bargaining power of workers.

Nonetheless, unemployed Americans cited the limited availability of jobs as a barrier to employment, suggesting that some workers are avoiding widely available entry-level jobs to search for others, perhaps with more pay or flexibility. Supporting that hypothesis: the second-most-cited barrier to employment was the need for more skills and education.

Some barriers affected particular groups: the need to take care of family was the top pick of caregivers, for example, while “My identity (age, race, gender, sexuality)” was the top pick for workers over age 55.

Unemployed Americans cite limited job availability and a lack of experience, skills, or education as the greatest barriers to employment.

When jobless respondents were asked about the causes of their unemployment, their answers collectively highlighted the challenges the pandemic has posed for lives and livelihoods everywhere. Thirty percent of the respondents (up from 27 percent in March) cited physical health as a cause, and 15 percent (up from 13 percent) cited mental health. Respondents who say they’ve stopped looking for work were the most likely to cite physical or mental health as a cause of their joblessness.

A third explanation for unemployment—the need to take care of family—was cited by 12 percent of the respondents. Yet that percentage masked considerable differences: those with children at home were 2.4 times more likely to cite taking care of family as a reason for unemployment. Asian Americans were three times more likely to cite taking care of family than respondents of other races.

Americans report physical health and mental health as the top causes of unemployment.

Looking ahead

As we found in the inaugural American Opportunity Survey, in March, this new survey reminds us of the substantial—and stubbornly persistent—barriers preventing many Americans from having a more equitable, prosperous future. In particular, the lack of access to healthcare, mental-health care, and (for parents and caregivers) to childcare represent thorny challenges that leaders in all sectors may wish to prioritize.

At the same time, the pulse-check nature of the survey points to intriguing, real-time developments for workers as America moves forward into 2022. Here are some of the possibilities we’ll be watching most closely:

Will the divergence we observed between respondents’ positive-trending views of the near term, and their more negative-trending views of the longer term, continue?
Will inflation continue into 2022? If so, what effect might it have on the perceived and real incomes of American workers?
What effect will the continued normalization of US fiscal policy (including the end of stimulus payments) have on workers’ perception of their economic opportunity and well-being?
Will the labor market return to something approximating a historical normal, or will the current—and unprecedented—mismatch between the supply of and demand for labor continue?
What efforts can the private, public, and social sectors undertake to help provide the training and skills that workers say they need to find better jobs?