There won’t be much of a shift away from private vehicles in North America over the coming decade—largely because there aren’t many incentives for drivers to change their behavior. But Europeans may ditch private vehicles for robo-shuttles and robo-taxis, and in Greater China, people may increasingly change to bus and rail.
Comparing large global cities highlights significant differences in expected regional mode-share shifts through 2030.
| North America - Car-reliant major cities | Europe - Western metropolitan areas | East Asia4 - Metropolitan areas | South America - Southern Cone cities | Greater China5 - Tier-1 cities | South Asia - Metropolitan areas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | |
| Private vehicles | 92.1 | 88.4 | 45.3 | 10.3 | 35.3 | 22.5 | 31.3 | 16.8 | 29.9 | 13.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Taxi or e-hailing | 1.6 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| New modes2 | 0 | 6.1 | 0 | 33.6 | 0 | 5.1 | 0 | 3.7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Public transit (bus) | 3.9 | 1.4 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 33 | 39.3 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 10.3 | 12.1 |
| Public transit (rail) | 0.7 | 0.5 | 19.6 | 22.4 | 42.1 | 46.7 | 21.5 | 22.7 | 34.6 | 39.7 | 79.9 | 80 |
| Shared micromobility | 0.2 | 1 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| Other3 | 1.5 | 1 | 13 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| Sample drivers |
Car-based infrastructure limits disruptions AVs6 disrupt transit usage in city centers |
Street redesigns cut congestion and car usage |
Reliable, high-quality transit withstands disruption Shared AVs are widely available but sparingly used |
AV shuttles penetrate taxi/bus networks Cycle paths and regulations limiting cars reduce congestion |
Public transit gets large investments Robotaxis see limited use because of lower-income residents |
AVs struggle to operate in chaotic streets Crowded rail networks are most used | ||||||
Notes
1Policy-guided shift to pooled autonomous-vehicle and transit scenario.
2New modes include roboshuttles, as well as pooled and unpooled robotaxis.
3"Other" includes walking, biking, private micromobility, 2- and 3-wheelers.
4Utilizes Japan city archetype for Tokyo.
5Greater China encompasses mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
6Autonomous vehicles.
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
McKinsey & Company
To read the article, see “From no mobility to future mobility: Where COVID-19 has accelerated change,” December 15, 2020.