Who is the future consumer?
Consumers no longer fit into traditional archetypes. Some of the most influential consumers of tomorrow are currently underserved.
1. Young people in emerging markets. By 2030, 75 percent of consumers in emerging markets will be between the ages of 15 and 34. Our data indicates these consumers may be optimistic about the economy and willing to spend.
Among this group, young consumers aged 18 to 24 in Asian and Middle Eastern nations, such as India and Saudi Arabia, will be particularly important to consumer businesses, given their pent-up demand and willingness to spend. These consumers indicate a strong desire to spend on premium products, so much so that they are up to two times more likely to trade up—meaning opt for higher-priced brands and retailers—than young consumers in advanced economies. They are also up to three times more optimistic about their respective economies (Exhibit 1). This optimism could translate into higher levels of future consumption. It’s worth noting that young consumers in Latin America are actually less likely to trade up than young consumers in other emerging economies.
2. Retired and ready to spend. Longer life expectancies and declining birth rates, particularly in advanced economies, are pushing the global population of people older than 65 to increase at a quicker rate than the population of people younger than that age.1 Yet for all the data relating to aging populations, older consumers are often misunderstood.
Despite the financial constraints that may accompany retirement, aging consumers across all income levels are willing to spend on discretionary items. In experiential categories such as travel, older consumers’ intent to splurge is even higher than that of millennials, who have historically been big travel spenders. High-income baby boomer and Silent Generation consumers (those whose household incomes exceed $100,000) are a sizable cohort in the United States, making up 30 percent of the market—and they’re more likely to spend on discretionary purchases, such as home improvement and gardening, compared with lower-income consumers their age.
In emerging markets, it’s not just younger consumers who are ready to spend but their parents, too. Wealthy aging consumers in emerging markets are more optimistic, expect to spend more on discretionary items, and plan on treating themselves more than wealthy aging consumers in advanced markets. In one of the starkest examples, 42 percent of wealthy aging consumers in emerging markets2 said they expect to spend more on entertainment, compared with 7 percent of comparable consumers in Europe3 and 11 percent in the United States. We see a similar willingness to spend in categories such as home improvement, airline flights, and hotel stays. Consumer businesses that market exclusively to younger consumers are thus missing out; they ignore wealthy aging consumers at their own risk.
3. The squeezed-but-splurging middle. We expect that cost-of-living increases in advanced economies will continue to put pressure on middle-income consumers. While conventional wisdom would suggest that these consumers will clamp down on discretionary spending as a result, our data reveals something different: instead, middle-income consumers in Europe and the United States say they plan to splurge on discretionary items at a rate that is comparable with that of high-income consumers.
This intent to splurge appears across various categories, including experience-based categories such as travel and dining out, as well as groceries and discretionary goods. Middle-income consumers might typically be expected to delay purchases during economically challenging times, but our research shows that they’re only slightly more inclined to delay purchases than wealthier consumers. They’re also not much more likely to trade down than higher-income consumers.